A Decision Support Tool To Manage Climate Change Risks To Forest Ecosystems “ECORISK”

The aim of this project was to design a methodology capable of modelling scenarios of forest growth, nutrient uptake and pollutant behaviour under different forest, soil, groundwater and climate conditions in Belgian forests. We developed a fully integrated modelling platform able to simulate detailed responses of forest ecosystems to changes in climate, pollution and management. The model can explore the feedback mechanisms between growth, management, climate and nutrient status of the soil and simulate the transfer of nuclear pollutants through the soil and the ecosystem. The downscaled climate scenarios developed within this project can be used for many other modelling studies. Main innovations in the models are the detailed soil water (including upward capillar flow), and the detailed soil nutrient cycling (active decay of soil organic matter, detailed uptake from the soil solution, allocation to tree compartments, interaction with the soil substrate and weathering). We have used the model for specific stand scale applications in intensively monitored sites. This has led to an increased process understanding and the following main conclusions from a set of case studies.