Assessing the nuclear fuel cycle under global capacity expansion scenarios toward 2050

This study examines the implications of tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050 on the nuclear fuel cycle, based on national projections and COP28 climate commitments. Regionally disaggregated electricity scenarios were generated and used as inputs for the ANICCA simulation code, applying Monte Carlo methods to assess uncertainty in fuel cycle metrics. Three strategies were analyzed: open cycle, partially closed cycle (Pu mono-recycling in LWRs), and advanced closed cycle (Pu and MA multi-recycling in LFRs).Results show that the open cycle could require about 15 million tons of natural uranium by 2100, surpassing identified reserves. Pu mono-recycling reduces uranium and enrichment needs by ∼9% and achieves Pu balance post-2050. The advanced cycle cuts minor actinide accumulation by ∼50%, easing long-term repository burdens.These results highlight the need to explore advanced fuel cycles and expand infrastructure for reprocessing, MOX fabrication, and waste management to meet sustainability goals under high nuclear deployment scenarios.