TY - JOUR
T1 - Bayesian source reconstruction of an anomalous Selenium-75 release at a nuclear research institute
AU - De Meutter, Pieter
AU - Hoffman, Ian
N1 - Score=10
PY - 2020/7/1
Y1 - 2020/7/1
N2 - Atmospheric transport and dispersion models are important tools in radiation protection as they help to estimate the impact of radionuclides released into the atmosphere. In particular, such models can be used in combination with radionuclide observations to estimate unknown source term parameters, or to improve source term estimates obtained through other methods. In this paper, a Bayesian inference system was used to determine the source term parameters and their corresponding credible intervals of a real-world anomalous 75Se release at a nuclear facility in Belgium. Furthermore, a formulation is proposed that not only takes into account true detections, but also true instrumental non-detections, false alarms and real misses. The Bayesian inference system is able to correctly determine the known source location. The Bayesian inference is then refined by fixing the release location and by making stronger assumptions about the release period.
AB - Atmospheric transport and dispersion models are important tools in radiation protection as they help to estimate the impact of radionuclides released into the atmosphere. In particular, such models can be used in combination with radionuclide observations to estimate unknown source term parameters, or to improve source term estimates obtained through other methods. In this paper, a Bayesian inference system was used to determine the source term parameters and their corresponding credible intervals of a real-world anomalous 75Se release at a nuclear facility in Belgium. Furthermore, a formulation is proposed that not only takes into account true detections, but also true instrumental non-detections, false alarms and real misses. The Bayesian inference system is able to correctly determine the known source location. The Bayesian inference is then refined by fixing the release location and by making stronger assumptions about the release period.
KW - Inverse modelling
KW - Atmospheric dispersion modelling
KW - Bayesian inference
KW - Source reconstruction
UR - https://ecm.sckcen.be/OTCS/llisapi.dll/open/41711451
U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106225
DO - 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106225
M3 - Article
SN - 0265-931X
VL - 218
SP - 1
EP - 13
JO - Journal of environmental radioactivity
JF - Journal of environmental radioactivity
M1 - 106225
ER -