D9.33 - Indicators for robust decision making

Decision making in nuclear emergencies heavily relies on the use of results from simulation models, either part of European decision support systems or specialized models that might be used for a particular purpose. So far, uncertainty handling is hardly supported in these mathematical models. Therefore, work package 6 of CONFIDENCE performed research on indicators that allow decision makers to better understand what the performance of different countermeasure strategies is and whether model results are appropriate to use under the given circumstances. Our work focused on two main areas, one related to “robustness” of countermeasure strategies, the other dealing with indicators quantifying the uncertainty in and reliability of results from simulation models in general. The first topic mainly focused on the concepts of robust decision options and robust recommendations in a Multi-Criteria Analysis framework. The second one focused on results from decision support systems and was based on a review performed by work package 1 of CONFIDENCE.