Different types of uncertainty in nuclear emergency management

Simon French, Stephanie Haywood, Deborah Oughton, Catrinel Turcanu

    Research outputpeer-review


    The objective of the CONFIDENCE project has been to identify, assess and communicate the uncertainties that arise in managing and recovering from a nuclear accident. To do that, it is important to be clear on what uncertainty means, how it arises and how we might analyse it. In fact, there are many forms of uncertainty, some of which we can assess with current tools, but some of which are more nebulous and difficult to deal with. Nonetheless, all need to be communicated to the emergency managers. Starting with a review of different categories of uncertainties, and using examples from the CONFIDENCE project, this paper discusses how the various uncertainties are manifested in nuclear emergency management. It concludes with a simple framework for categorising and analysing them. The overall intention is that such a framework could contribute to a broader discussion on identifying and handling uncertainties with nuclear emergency management actors.
    Original languageEnglish
    Article number2020029
    Pages (from-to)1-6
    Number of pages6
    StatePublished - 20 May 2020

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