TY - JOUR
T1 - On the assumptions behind statistical sampling
T2 - A 235U fission yield uncertainty propagation case study
AU - Belfiore, Enrica
AU - Grimaldi, Federico
AU - Fiorito, Luca
AU - Romojaro, Pablo
AU - Žerovnik, Gašper
AU - Labeau, Pierre Etienne
AU - Dulla, Sandra
N1 - Score=10
Publisher Copyright
© 2024 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
PY - 2024/3
Y1 - 2024/3
N2 - Monte Carlo sampling is frequently employed for uncertainty quantification in depletion calculations. Several assumptions are needed to perform this analysis. In this work, an assessment of these assumptions is proposed via sample convergence studies and perturbation of the sampling distribution. The Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modeling (UAM) Pincell Hot Full Power and the Turkey Point reference cases were considered for this purpose. The 235U thermal independent fission yield uncertainties evaluated in JEFF-3.3 and JEFF-4.0 were propagated to the nuclide vector and to the system multiplication factor. Using JEFF-4.0 data, a 75% reduction in the uncertainty of selected nuclide concentrations and an 80% reduction in the multiplication factor uncertainty were observed, showcasing the effect of full covariance evaluations. The presented results also prove that the uncertainty in the considered observables shows marginal dependence on the sampling distribution.
AB - Monte Carlo sampling is frequently employed for uncertainty quantification in depletion calculations. Several assumptions are needed to perform this analysis. In this work, an assessment of these assumptions is proposed via sample convergence studies and perturbation of the sampling distribution. The Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modeling (UAM) Pincell Hot Full Power and the Turkey Point reference cases were considered for this purpose. The 235U thermal independent fission yield uncertainties evaluated in JEFF-3.3 and JEFF-4.0 were propagated to the nuclide vector and to the system multiplication factor. Using JEFF-4.0 data, a 75% reduction in the uncertainty of selected nuclide concentrations and an 80% reduction in the multiplication factor uncertainty were observed, showcasing the effect of full covariance evaluations. The presented results also prove that the uncertainty in the considered observables shows marginal dependence on the sampling distribution.
KW - Burnup calculations
KW - Independent fission yields
KW - Monte Carlo sampling
KW - SANDY
KW - Uncertainty analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85188548049&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/00295639.2024.2323217
DO - 10.1080/00295639.2024.2323217
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85188548049
SN - 0029-5639
JO - Nuclear Science and Engineering
JF - Nuclear Science and Engineering
ER -