Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble

Pieter De Meutter; Johan Camps; Andy Delcloo; Piet Termonia

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54

Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble

Pieter De Meutter, Johan Camps, Andy Delcloo, Piet Termonia

Crisis Management and Decision Support

Research output › peer-review

Abstract

In late September and October 2017, Ru-103 and Ru-106 have been detected throughout the northern hemisphere by national environmental radioactivity monitoring networks and by the International Monitoring System that is being established to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Ru- 103 (half-life: 39.26 d) and Ru-106 (half-life: 373.6 d) are radioactive particulates that have no natural sources and for which there is no measurable global background. Based on the fact that only Ru-106 (and, in much lower concentrations and at fewer places, Ru-103) but no other fission products such as iodine and cesium have been measured, a nuclear accident can be excluded.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application
Subtitle of host publication	ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI
Publisher	Springer
Pages	343-346
Number of pages	4
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-030-22055-6
ISBN (Print)	978-3-030-22054-9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54
State	Published - 24 Nov 2019
Event	2018 - ITM - 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Applications - Lord Elgin Hotel, Ottawa Duration: 14 May 2018 → 18 May 2018 https://itm2018.vito.be/

Conference

Conference	2018 - ITM - 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Applications
Country/Territory	Canada
City	Ottawa
Period	2018-05-14 → 2018-05-18
Internet address	https://itm2018.vito.be/

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54License: Unspecified

Cite this

De Meutter, P., Camps, J., Delcloo, A., & Termonia, P. (2019). Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble. In International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application: ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI (pp. 343-346). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54

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title = "Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF{\textquoteright}s New ERA5 Ensemble",

abstract = "In late September and October 2017, Ru-103 and Ru-106 have been detected throughout the northern hemisphere by national environmental radioactivity monitoring networks and by the International Monitoring System that is being established to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Ru- 103 (half-life: 39.26 d) and Ru-106 (half-life: 373.6 d) are radioactive particulates that have no natural sources and for which there is no measurable global background. Based on the fact that only Ru-106 (and, in much lower concentrations and at fewer places, Ru-103) but no other fission products such as iodine and cesium have been measured, a nuclear accident can be excluded.",

keywords = "Atmospheric transport modelling, Uncertainty quantification, Inverse modelling, CTBT0, Ruthenium, ERA5, Xenon",

author = "{De Meutter}, Pieter and Johan Camps and Andy Delcloo and Piet Termonia",

note = "Score=3; 2018 - ITM - 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Applications ; Conference date: 14-05-2018 Through 18-05-2018",

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doi = "10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54",

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De Meutter, P , Camps, J, Delcloo, A & Termonia, P 2019, Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble. in International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application: ITM 2018: Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXVI. Springer, pp. 343-346, 2018 - ITM - 36th International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Applications, Ottawa, Canada, 2018-05-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22055-6_54

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T1 - Quantification of Uncertainty in Lagrangian Dispersion Modelling, Using ECMWF’s New ERA5 Ensemble

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AU - Delcloo, Andy

AU - Termonia, Piet

N1 - Score=3

PY - 2019/11/24

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N2 - In late September and October 2017, Ru-103 and Ru-106 have been detected throughout the northern hemisphere by national environmental radioactivity monitoring networks and by the International Monitoring System that is being established to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Ru- 103 (half-life: 39.26 d) and Ru-106 (half-life: 373.6 d) are radioactive particulates that have no natural sources and for which there is no measurable global background. Based on the fact that only Ru-106 (and, in much lower concentrations and at fewer places, Ru-103) but no other fission products such as iodine and cesium have been measured, a nuclear accident can be excluded.

AB - In late September and October 2017, Ru-103 and Ru-106 have been detected throughout the northern hemisphere by national environmental radioactivity monitoring networks and by the International Monitoring System that is being established to verify compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Ru- 103 (half-life: 39.26 d) and Ru-106 (half-life: 373.6 d) are radioactive particulates that have no natural sources and for which there is no measurable global background. Based on the fact that only Ru-106 (and, in much lower concentrations and at fewer places, Ru-103) but no other fission products such as iodine and cesium have been measured, a nuclear accident can be excluded.

KW - Atmospheric transport modelling

KW - Uncertainty quantification

KW - Inverse modelling

KW - CTBT0

KW - Ruthenium

KW - ERA5

KW - Xenon

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