Using Belief Degree Distributed Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Energy Policy Evaluation

Lusine Mkrtchyan, Da Ruan

    Research outputpeer-review

    1 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    Cognitive maps (CMs) were initially for graphical representation of uncertain causal reasoning. Later Kosko suggested Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) in which users freely express their opinions in linguistic terms instead of crisp numbers. However, it is not always easy to assign some linguistic term to a causal link. In this paper we suggest a new type of CMs namely, Belief Degree-Distributed FCMs (BDD-FCMs) in which causal links are expressed by belief structures which enable getting the links' evaluations with distributions over the linguistic terms. We propose a general framework to construct BDD-FCMs by directly using belief structures or other types of structures such as interval values, linguistic terms, or crisp numbers. The proposed framework provides a more flexible tool for causal reasoning as it handles any kind of structures to evaluate causal links. We propose an algorithm to find a similarity between experts judgments by BDD-FCMs for a case study in Energy Policy evaluation.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationHandbook on Decision Making
    Subtitle of host publicationVol 2: Risk Management in Decision Making
    EditorsJie Lu, Guangquan Zhang, Lakhmi Jain
    Pages39-67
    Number of pages29
    Volume33
    DOIs
    StatePublished - 2012

    Publication series

    NameIntelligent Systems Reference Library
    Volume33
    ISSN (Print)1868-4394
    ISSN (Electronic)1868-4408

    ASJC Scopus subject areas

    • Computer Science(all)
    • Information Systems and Management
    • Library and Information Sciences

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